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Capital projects are notorious for budget blowouts and delays. What if AI could predict financial distress 200 days in advance and prevent multimillion-dollar cost overruns?
In Episode 6 of the Hevi AI Podcast, Paul Culvenor and Brad Gyngell sit down with Cuong Quang, co-founder of Octant AI, to discuss:
✅ Why 80% of major projects run over budget and how AI can fix it
✅ How machine learning can detect financial distress before it happens
✅ The biggest AI trends impacting mining, construction, and infrastructure
✅ The future of AI-driven project forecasting and risk management
Cuong has over 20 years of experience managing mega-projects across mining, oil & gas, and infrastructure for Rio Tinto, BHP, Chevron, and Total. His company, Octant AI, uses AI to improve cost forecasting accuracy by up to 87%.
This episode is packed with insights for executives, project managers, and finance leaders who want to de-risk major capital projects and turn AI into a competitive advantage.
Cuong’s AI journey began 25 years ago, just after IBM’s Deep Blue defeated chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov. He was there when AI was still rule-based expert systems—long before machine learning, deep learning, and today's large language models.
After studying at Oxford, Cuong shifted his focus to one of the biggest problems in project management—cost and time overruns.
“I went to Oxford to figure out if the cost blowouts I’d seen in my career were an industry-wide problem. Turns out, they weren’t just common—they were everywhere.” — Cuong Quang
This led to the founding of Octant AI, a company using machine learning to predict financial distress in capital projects.
🔹 Core problem: 80% of major projects experience significant cost and time overruns.
🔹 Solution: AI-driven forecasting that provides early warnings up to 200 days in advance.
The biggest causes of project overruns:
🚧 Overly optimistic planning – Forecasts often rely on manual estimates and historical trends rather than real-time data.
🚧 Poor risk visibility – Projects have too many moving parts, making it difficult to detect financial distress early.
🚧 Data silos & inefficiencies – Critical project data is fragmented across teams, limiting predictive insights.
Octant AI learns patterns from past projects and real-time data to forecast financial risk more accurately.
✅ Predicts financial distress up to 200 days in advance
✅ Improves cost forecasting accuracy by up to 87%
✅ Identifies risk factors like contract structure, weather, and project type
“One of our customers avoided a $3.5M loss thanks to an early warning from Octant AI. They had 200 days to take action before the cost overrun happened.” — Cuong Quang
🔹 Step 1: AI Learns from Past Projects
🔹 Step 2: AI Monitors Real-Time Project Data
🔹 Step 3: AI Provides Actionable Early Warnings
“Most projects just roll bad performance forward. Our AI shows where you should be—not just where you’re heading if nothing changes.” — Cuong Quang
Even though AI can prevent catastrophic cost overruns, adoption in mining, construction, and infrastructure is still slow.
🔴 Trust Issues – Project managers with 20+ years of experience often trust gut instinct over AI-driven insights.
🔴 Legacy Thinking – Many projects still rely on outdated forecasting models and spreadsheets.
🔴 Data Privacy Concerns – Organizations worry about sharing sensitive financial data with external AI models.
✅ 100% Secure, Private Models – Customers own their AI models, and data can be deleted after training.
✅ Interpretable AI – Unlike black-box deep learning models, Octant AI explains why it makes each prediction.
✅ Finance & Risk Alignment – CFOs, risk managers, and executives see clear financial value in AI-driven forecasting.
“Once executives see the financial upside—preventing million-dollar losses—it becomes a much easier conversation.” — Cuong Quang
🔹 AI-powered project forecasting will become standard – No more relying on gut feel and spreadsheets.
🔹 Agentic AI will automate workflows – AI will handle more complex project management tasks.
🔹 Physics-informed AI will revolutionize simulations – AI will simulate entire projects before execution, reducing risk.
“We’re only at the beginning of the AI revolution. The companies that move fast will have a massive competitive advantage.” — Cuong Quang
AI isn’t just a buzzword—it’s actively saving companies millions by preventing cost blowouts before they happen.
🚀 Want to future-proof your projects?
📅 Book a demo with Octant AI
🚀 Want to see Hevi in action?
📅 Book a demo at https://calendly.com/paulculvenor/30min
🔊 Listen to the full episode on:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1jaqBRK1d4yj85bakVw2G8?si=N1IBR8lyTKaEIQl4u1XfEA
YouTube: https://youtu.be/nD00QqbB0Cc
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